Sunday, March 17, 2013

Basic Instinct

The Cyprus factor! Yet another proof politicians aren't capable of understanding that we are playing a multiple round game.

Scenario 1 - The bill get approved. If you had 100K, now you just own around 90K (I still don't get why the 9.9%, instead of 10%). Well, I'll guess that as soon as you get your hands on the remaining 90K they will fly at Concorde speed to somewhere else. Result: Bank Run. (checkmate in 2 moves).

Scenario 2 - The bill don't get approved. Your still get your hands on 100K. They will fly at Blackbird speeds somewhere else, with a tank refueling in between, so that the money can actually travel around the entire planet. Result: Bank Run. (checkmate in 1 move).

What European leaders don't grasp is that anyone in Italy, Spain, Portugal are asking now, not if they will fuel their money for take-off, but where are the possible destinations for their money planes. And guess what? The wealthier you are, the less you need the money to be where it is, the faster you can move it. Ooops.... I'm guessing US Wealth Management guys are hiring 10,000 ft call centers. With such moves from Euro guys, you don't even need sophisticated private bankers to attract the green ones.

Is like someone tells you: your neighbor got robbed and you maybe next. Do you still keep your Picasso's at home? Nope? That's strange, because it is what Euro Zone Politicians are betting that is precisely what you will do.

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